America and Israel's Attack on Iran: Causes and Future Situation of the War
Currently, the geopolitics of the Middle East is going through a heated situation. Especially since February 28, 2026, the joint military operation of America and Israel has started a new conflict in Iran. In today's blog, we will discuss why these two countries attacked Iran and how long this war could last.
Why did America and Israel attack Iran?
There is no single reason behind this attack, but rather a long-term accumulated resentment and strategic security risks at work here:
1. Stopping the nuclear program: Israel and America have long accused each other of secretly developing nuclear weapons. This direct attack was carried out as Iran tried to increase its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities again after the "Twelve-Day War" of 2025.
2. Regional proxy wars: Iran has been providing financial and military support to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Israel believes that the main threat to its national security is Tehran.
3. Regime Change: Intense internal protests began in Iran in early 2026. In light of the Iranian government's tough stance on suppressing the protests, US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tried to "legitimize" the attack by declaring their support for the Iranian people.
4. Elimination of the top leadership: In this operation, Israel and the US directly targeted Iran's top leaders, the main objective of which was to dismantle Iran's command structure.
How long can the war last?
Military analysts have different opinions on the durability of the war. However, depending on the situation, there are several possibilities:
Short-term conflict (a few weeks): If Iran's military capabilities, especially drones and missile launchers, can be quickly destroyed, it could be contained within a few weeks without escalating to a major ground war. The war is currently in its 16th day.
Long-term proxy war: If Iran cannot survive a direct war, it could wage a long-term guerrilla or proxy war across the Middle East (Iraq, Syria, Lebanon) through its regional allies.
Uncertain future: Since Iran's top leadership has been damaged, an internal chaos or power struggle could begin in the country. In such a situation, it could take months or even years for stability to return.
Impact on the world economy
As a result of this war, oil prices are rising sharply in the international market. In particular, if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, global supply chains could collapse, leading to a long-term recession in the global economy.
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